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Teachearlyyears.com 77 O ccupancy is the life- blood of early years provision with recent research from Ceeda revealing a sector in very poor health. In April 2019 occupancy averaged 77 per cent in private voluntary and independent nurseries and pre-schools; in the week commencing July 6 it averaged just 48 per cent. Childminders have seen occupancy flatlining at an average of 35 per cent in recent weeks (bit. ly/33IKKQw). A look at the evidence base suggests a long and bumpy road to recovery. DECLINING EMPLOYMENT LEVELS To date official headline measures of employment and unemployment are largely unchanged due in most part to the cushioning effect of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Uncertainty about future employment is increasing, however, as the end of furlough support draws near. Announcements of large-scale redundancies across retail, travel, hospitality and leisure industries are increasing at pace. Many posts are in lower-paid sectors, impacting low- income families hard and reinforcing existing inequalities. Job vacancies in the UK in April to June 2020 were at their lowest level since the Vacancy Survey began in April to June 2001, at an estimated 333,000; this is 23 per cent lower than the previous record low in April to June 2009 (bit.ly/3ksIrXT) . CHANGING WORK PATTERNS While the government has shifted its message from an emphasis on home- working to a return to the workplace, working from home is likely to remain more common than in the past. The implications of this changing work pattern for long-term childcare demand are not yet clear. Analysis by the Office for National Statistics shows that jobs earning higher hourly wages are most adaptable to home working, potentially impacting on private fee income in affluent areas. The analysis found the top 20 per cent of workers most likely to be able to work from home are fairly representative of the gender split in the workforce as a whole: 49 per cent are women (bit.ly/2DBNCE7) Any lasting impact will of course rest on the extent to which childcare and work commitments can be met on a long-term basis at home – this is far from clear. LOCAL OUTBREAKS Local Covid-19 outbreaks are likely to factor in the coming months, creating unpredictable occupancy troughs at local level. The impact on providers will largely be determined by how quickly outbreaks are identified and contained through national track and trace strategies and local public health measures together determining the duration and severity of any lockdown arrangements. When it comes to isolated outbreaks within a specific setting, a A long road to recovery Low rates of occupancy due to the Covid-19 pandemic means tough times ahead, warns Jo Verrill... recently reported experience suggests recovery can be swift when the incident is managed well. REDUCED ACCESS TO CARE FROM EXTENDED FAMILY MEMBERS One feature of the pandemic which may inflate formal childcare demand is sadly the greater vulnerability of older age groups to Covid-19 and their related withdrawal from informal childcare support. CLOSURE OF THE CORONAVIRUS JOB RETENTION SCHEME The ending of furlough support is a double-edged sword for the sector. The furlough scheme depressed demand for formal provision, giving working parents the option to care for and educate their children at home. A return to work on original terms and conditions of employment is likely to encourage a return to previous childcare arrangements. Retraction of the scheme will also mean redundancies and possible reductions in working hours and earnings, tempering demand. Finally, retraction of furlough support (and other forms of assistance) will mean providers are faced with the full cost of their payroll at a time when demand is still recovering, and funding rates are falling significantly short of operating costs. The toxic mix of low occupancy, increased costs and funding shortfalls is likely to fuel setting closures in 2020. These findings are drawn from Ceeda’s independent AboutEY research programme. Register for our newsletter (bit.ly/2XLEnbk) to get all the latest insights. DR JO VERRILL IS MANAGING DIRECTOR AT CEEDA